KIM NICHOLAS
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Measuring & modeling winegrape yields & quality under climate change 

Winegrape quality under climate change 

My PhD research focused on the impacts of climate change on the wine industry in California, including coupling dynamically downscaled global climate model output with phenological development and quality models to project future wine quality in California (Hayhoe et al., 2004, PNAS).

​I developed a more empirical model of wine quality from a three-year field campaign to quantify the effect of vineyard-scale climate on the development of phenolic compounds in Pinot noir grapes. I found that anthocyanins (which give color to red wines) and tannins (responsible for astringency) were decreased by increasing heat during the final ripening period, and by light at the levels I measured in commercial vineyards (Nicholas et al., 2011, Ag & Forest Met). This means that wine composition and quality is vulnerable to climate warming, but could be at least partially offset by simple adaptations like changing vine pruning to shade the fruit more.
​
Modeling historical winegrape yields and projecting yields within-season and under future climate change 
In a series of papers led by David Lobell, we developed empirical weather-based models of crop yields for twelve major California crops based on a large dataset of historical weather and crop distribution and yields (Lobell et al., 2007, Climatic Change).

We used these models to forecast crop yields earlier in the growing season and with considerably less resource investment than was possible with previous methods (Lobell et al., 2006, California Agriculture).

We combined our crop models with the output of a suite of global climate models and emissions scenarios to project the impact of future climate change on crop yields, accounting for uncertainty (Lobell et al., 2006, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology).

A summary of this work focused on winegrapes is in the poster below, presented at ASEV 2007 (download high-res here), and in a conference paper presented at a UNESCO conference, "Modeling climate change impacts on wine grape yields and quality in California."

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  • Home
  • About
  • Book
    • UNDER THE SKY WE MAKE
    • Book Seminar
    • Teach UNDER THE SKY WE MAKE
    • Discussion Questions
    • Book Clubs
    • Support the Book
    • Press Kit & Images
    • Request from Local Bookstore/Library
    • How to order outside US/Canada
    • Behind the Scenes
    • If My Book Were Music
  • Research
    • Lab Members
    • Peer-Reviewed Publications
    • Flying Less >
      • The Takeoff of Staying on the Ground
      • Policy Briefs
      • Ingen ny tid för avgång
      • Academics Flying Less
    • Radically Reducing Lund's Emissions
    • Climate Solutions >
      • We Can Fix It: FORMAS Comms
      • What Can I Do? 2 >
        • What Can I Do?
        • High School Teaching Materials
        • Fyra klimatsmarta livsstilsval
        • Press Release: 4 Lifestyle Choices That Most Reduce Your Carbon Footprint
        • The Climate Mitigation Gap: Study & Video Abstract
        • Study FAQs
      • Climate Science 101
      • Climate Policy >
        • IPCC Report on 1.5°
        • Kims Klimatval
        • COP21 (Paris Agreement)
      • Farmer adaptation
      • Harnessing biodiversity
    • Climate Education
    • Sustainable Land >
      • Global land use
      • European farming systems
      • Swedish land use
      • Ecosystem Services & OPERAs
      • REDD+
      • Land Acquisitions
    • Sustainable Food >
      • Urban Food Forestry
      • Local food in Iceland
      • One Great Meal
      • Dietary choices & climate change
      • Crop yields & climate
    • Wine, Climate, & Sustainability >
      • Wine & Climate: Impacts & Solutions
      • Wine Diversity for Climate Adaptation
      • Wine yields & quality under climate change
      • Farmer climate adaptation
      • Vineyard ecosystems & landscapes
      • European Wine Case Studies (OPERAs)
    • For Kids (K-12)
  • Writing
    • Newsletter
    • Peer-Reviewed Publications
    • Magazines & Popular Science
    • Blog
  • Speaking
  • Teaching
    • Teaching Overview
    • Climate Change Curriculum
    • We Can Fix It World Cafe >
      • We Can Fix It World Cafe 2017
      • We Can Fix It World Cafe 2016
      • We Can Fix It World Cafe 2015
      • We Can Fix It World Cafe 2014
    • Courses >
      • Writing for Change >
        • Course Readings
        • Apply
        • Course Information
    • Advice for Students
    • Peer Writing Tutors >
      • Instructions for Peer Tutors
      • Apply to be a writing tutor!
    • Scholarship of Teaching and Learning
    • Early Career
    • R Tutorials >
      • R tutorial 1: Basic calculations and graphs
      • R tutorial 2: Data Visualization
    • Student-Led Exams >
      • Simplified Self Grading
      • DIY Exam Teaching Notes
      • Peer Grading
      • Self Grading
  • Activism
  • Contact